Even more than towards past, I use to look towards the future. As this is where I intend to live.
Albert Einstein, 1879-1955.
Dynamic Applications is a Strategy Advisory founded 01 Jan 2016 by an independent consultant: Martin Bernhardt. A widely unknown, small inventor, software developer, and author of this article. It should not be important who i am. You could also call me an unemployed who refused to live from social healthcare.
content is key.
Since i saw no reason in wasting everyone’s time writing another 100 job applications, i’ve designed and printed a few business cards with my inkjet and opened this company on 01 Jan 2016. Finally, i started to do what i found important, what i want to do, couldn’t find elsewhere, and now i am writing this article as a first contribution. As being a software developer, expect to find my best thoughts right within our software, though. This is just the docs.
At Dynamic Applications, we support people in learning management decisions. Our calculators are based on System Dynamics (SD). This method was developed at MIT in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and became popular through the Club of Rome’s study The Limits to Growth, back in 1978.
SD allows us to give a precise measure to potential, validated future options. Of multiple ways, you can decide for the best reasonable, possible option. Our software will be Dynamic Applications. It will enable you to find your best option, by checking them all. The best possible way to go, ready in a minute.
Standing still will lead you nowhere, so any way will do better, but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t make sense to check scenarios, and weigh them against each other. Believe me, you’ll feel a lot better if you checked them through. After a while, you’ll start thinking in a different way. Nothing to be afraid of, so don’t you worry after 2-3 sleepless nights in the beginning. When this happens, your brain starts adapting to thinking over time. What happens then is that you’ll see problems in your so-well-prepared business plan show up, say, 2-3 years ahead of time. We’re going to make a nice graphic display, and you’ll easily see that profits will go down at this or that occasion. It’s always like that. Now the important thing to remember is that you are looking ahead of time. You simply got the advantage that you can solve a critical problem in your overall cost calculation (e.g. you’ve been a little too optimistic and on a sunny day, you’ve rented a bureau just a little bit too expensive for what the competition charges, so,you’ll never be able to make as good a price). Your advantage is simply that you see it right now, and not three years later. There’s various ways to address this simple problem.
In daily work life, most of the time, it’s not about extreme ways to go. It’s about finding the optimal compromise in conflicting requirements. Applying the System Dynamics approach, you’ll also learn System’s Thinking, the philosophy of sustainability. You’ll start to look at a conventional software program and ask: ok, i see the present situation, and where’s my time axis here? – at the same moment, present is already gone.
It sounds complicated, but if you do it like that for a while, it’s just like looking at x & y. With an additional t, your time axis.
SD is based on one of the longest constants in time we know: the existance of earth, our planet, and life. Hope. Founded in the knowledge that the world, as a whole, is in balance. Seen as a whole, any weight has its counterpart.
So that’s what our logo shows. A fisherman’s hope of approaching land in early morning, the sun just rising from horizon behind. Horizon is also where you look at: Infinity. And, have you recognized how quiet it is? – a world in balance.
Early morning of a standard day.
Design is one of the most important things for decisions. This is my design. I feel if you found this one person design attractive, chances are you’re gonna think like me.
Technically, we’re based upon the developing of a method for automatic solving of differential equations (a short tribute for mathematicians follows – that’s people who invented, and define measure itself. Numbers, you know…)
As being a customer of Dynamic Applications, it is important that you believe in the existence of Math. If you don’t believe in counting one and one together, there’s not much we can do for you. Read our blog to escape infinite boredom if you want.
As we know from school, the lim (t-> oo) of an Integral will give you the area below any function in time. It will account all those function values arriving over time, much like your personal bank account does with your money, or a stock of bees does with bees – should you ever count them.
In SD, a Stock Value (a bank account, or Total Balance variable) collects values over time, like a stock of bees collects bees over time. Plus and Minus. See our docs for more.
If we keep our function of interest in balance, growing slowly enough, our problem will solve over time. If we don’t, it’ll escalate. That’s because an Integral will collect all contributions of the underlying curve over time.
No acceleration means stability.
Fast Acceleration means escalations.
It’s important to understand the rules of the game you wanna play.
Well of course, you could also use our tools for profit maximization. It depends on your personal Target, and we leave that one up to you. Let everyone have their own success indicator.
So we got Input Values x1 … xn and Target Values y1 … yn and a Solver which counts it all together, and produces results. Then we define a third axis, called t. For every single Input Value x, we allow you to estimate its development.
For example, we allow you to estimate how fast can you produce a single piece of bread, if you got 48 months to optimize your production. As we all know, it’s always better if you got an idea of what you are doing. Especially, if that’s your business.
From there, we’ll calculate all dependent Targets over 48 months in a row, and show them in a diagram. Now you’ll be able to see if your estimation was any useful. Then, you can estimate the next Input Value over time, let’s say, the development of your material cost.
At Dynamic Applications, we prefer more sustainable targets, though. We think that a company should produce values. A company that lives longer than its inventor was probably able to give a relevant enough contribution. Maybe this way, you won’t become as rich as others in money, but at least your life was not all wasted.
One could argue that rich companies will also survive their founder, just because they got many employees and even in lack of a greater vision, they’ll survive from despair of employees of losing their job. Well, yes. It has happened. Who said the most relevant contribution to a company has to come from its founder (or foundress), at all. In a situation like that, maybe they’ll give even the whole thing a new name and the founder will be forgotten, soon. Who cares. If every one would have to be remembered, pretty soon we’d see complete overload in everything. For some reason or another, this remembers me of the bigdata problem, so let’s call it like that. Hm hm.
Read on. We’ll come to that.
So we’ve introduced and discussed Stock variables. Bank Accounts. Typically, these will show the balance of your current production scenario. Like, if you’re making any overall profit with your company over time. Good! Right now you’ve passed the most difficult aspect required to solve a differential equation over time. Don’t worry, there’s nothing more complex to be afraid of than differential equations on the whole website.
If everything works out as expected, users won’t even notice what they are solving right now.
If you want to verify a calculation, you’ll be able check our automatic differential equation solver with a Pocket Calculator. In the beginning, just do it. It’ll generate trust. Later, you can then turn a hundred “screws” to the desired value, and you’ll know how the Solver proceeds when calculating the combined outcome. Yea. I really hope i’ll get that differential equation solver part to work, pretty soon. At Twitter, world’s fastest network, we’ve experimented with a few tweets about what we are going to do, and the SocialMedia crowd out there has answered with funny smileys, laughing in tears. I think they seem to like the general idea and the smileys were more about can we get this to workn a lifetime, but you never know.
Oh, by the way, i’ve started with almost 10000 followers on Twitter. It’s one of our targets to send one invitation to everyone out there. If we do 1000 per day, which takes about 15 minutes if you’re any good in repeating a standard task (do you tap-tap-tap on contact buttons slower than one per second? – believe me, it’s almost impossible to be that slow, even talking just about the first 1000). First estimations show that about 30…40 % of people do follow back. So if me make 400000 in year one, 100000 followers. With 400 Mio. active Twitterers, there’ll be 1000 years to go, resulting in 100 Mio. Followers over time. That will be enough.
Even if we target high and make just a few percent, before a car hits us on the road and we’re all gone, there is a point. Aren’t we all nerve-tracked by commercials, radio spots, adwords, adware, spyware, etc? – the way we do it, we’ll just invite people to join one of our channels who got an open postbox on purpose. Who else should we target with an innovation like that? – it’s gonna be a little challenge not to hit anyone more than once, but, apart from that, sounds overall fair to me. One contact request in a lifetime, and you can tap connect back if you want, just from a small logo and an account name. If you don’t even tap, it’s all you’ll ever hear from us. If you tap yes, some day in the future, maybe 100 days later, you’ll spot a few tweets from us in your timeline, as you look it up at the right moment. Depends on you.
Ok, enough of that. Usually, we don’t talk much about it, all that Nerd stuff. You’re not a Nerd? – good. Forget anything about this and you’ll be fine. We think the Solver concept should work, and we’ll prove it. Believe me, i’ve thought about it for a long time. Transparency of the whole formula system, live within the application. We think this way, our reference product will increase user value in the first place. Oh, have i told you that Dynamic Applications are going to offer business model calculations at an exceptional price? – i’d say it’s always good to prove that you understand your own business, from day one. Never offer a price you can’t make, you know (remember that fixed cost thing, but don’t you worry, we’ll give you a field for that). Apart from that, hit the market with full force of what ever so small you’ve got to offer.
Most chances ralery come by your door, twice. You know, it’s gonna be hard this way, with about no money remaining or even pouring in at all, for a long time. As long as we’re willing to reduce our own expenses though, and live a decent, modest life, we think it’s fair enough. It’s not our fault if the standard company owner start buying big cars in year one, house in year 10, and we got the better business model in the long run. Let everyone go their own way. So if we’ll ever be able to add that configurable time ruler for all our projections, we’ll limit it to 120 years, maximum. That’s a promise. We prefer to stay optimistic and so if nothing else remains, at least we’ll have a good life for, say, 90%..99% of the whole time, depending on the day we find out. It’s gonna be enough.
All you need to remember about us.
we contribute to Sustainability. We’re working to enable you, the customer, to solve any kind of optimization problem, no matter how complex. As easy as playing a silly children’s game. We’re working on an innovation accelerator here. A little but incredibly useful tool that helps you to make your wish come true.
a Perfect Desire.
Yes. By that vision, what you’ll actually get is a piece of crap really. We’re working on it. And we encourage you to contribute. Seen from the point of mathmatical statistics, it’s very probable that many people’s knowledge combined is better than one. It doesn’t have to be true in any single situation, though, as there are many. We think about inducing a competition here, a swarm intelligence approach. I’ll let you know how can we incorporate this as soon as it becomes more clear to me.
Keep in mind we’re talking about math here, not Scientology. We’re using a method. We can only predict the obvious, releaving you from the burden of hour-long matrix or calculations, of filling in hundreds of fields in an excel sheet, when solving optimization problems. Or simply filling in a business plan. We’re going to deliver interactive business planners, really soon. That part is for sure.
We are allno wizards, and sothere’s always luck, coincidence, and new inventions. So in the end, keep in mind future is never predictable, exactly. However, to make for a good prediction, we have to start from present, from today’s reality. We have to leave the burdens of past behind, and start looking forward.
The one thing we’re going to define, altogether.
I’ve influenced you. Are you going to influence me?
So, what do we do when making decisions? –
we turn around and combine options in our mind. About everyone in the whole world combine 2 or 3 conflicting developments in their head, and take good guess on the combined outcome. We train ourselves this way when buying food in store, for example.
Predicted Desire will be able to combine hundreds of them. Hundreds of conflicting parameters, statistically mediated over time. Still, it’s a calculator concept. A calculator can not overcome reason.
Think about any parameter you turn, first.
you want to optimize your production.
Does it sound realistic? – are there any hidden consequences when proceeding this way? – maybe you’ll need better material to produce faster, at some point in this game. There’s a formula that could be elaborated in more detail. Always. And a mathematically optimal way isn’t always a realistic one, or the one you’d really like to follow.
But, is it then relevant what we do? – should we measure our decisions, weigh our feelings? –
this is a Top-Down approach.
It’ll give you a good overview on any future situation. That’s all it can do. If you go into detail too much, well, it’s possible, but we never said it will remain as easy as it was in the beginning, on day one, the one day you started your new business on top of our products, or this article even. It’s never too late, you know. Not before you’re dead.
Do something reasonable.
And there you go. You’ll find joy in working. Working for the world out there. Working for customers. Working on making that one very wish, your one very wish come true. And you’ll see.
Customers are going to find you.
We thought an overview may help you to decide about your long-term strategy. Then, you can solve those Details on the way. So if you see your target, the aim you’s wanted to reach within, say, the next 4 years… we think you’ve already gone the way, once.
So you’ll be able to follow it, and skip any burdens that may show up. You’ve seen it’s possible to reach your target. All you need.
In 21st century societies, we presume most people will suffer from not having found a worthful target. Infinite bore-out syndrome, doing it all the same way, every day. Having so much to do, no time to think about why. Well you know. Some important people out there are playing this game with you. With us. So it used to be.
Why do you go to work for, every day?
So every time someone develops a better material, process, or component, or invents something that the world hasn’t seen before, it’s time to run our calculator again.
You’ll want to check whether your optimal future strategy has changed. Maybe, you’ll even want to add a new formula. To adjust your target. Or keep the target, and simply adjust your way to it, as an easier way is showing up. All you need to know.
Competition never sleeps. Remember they’re only human, also. And that’s your chance.
We take a small step forward every day. And so we start with one worker in 2016. me.
i think that it feels allright.
About Dynamic Applications.
The purpose of website, blog, and software is to underline our expertise. Believe me, if you ever consider to start developing your own predictor for the whole world, as a matter of fact, creditability becomes of major importance after a week or two, when you’ve talked about your concept to, let’s say, your parents and family. What’s the point in developing a genious tool (i’m only talking about the concept here, not the garbage you’ll find in the downloads section from day one to, let’s say, year 4) and then, as soon as you publish, nobody is able to understand what it is, at all? – And, much more important, the purpose of this website is to support you as good as possible by providing information. It’s desired to become tutorial, elaboration, documentation, and – most important – inspiration. Who cares about me. People come and go, you know.
True innovations can change the world.
Why business? –
well, the SD approach is known at Universities, you know. Alas, the scientists are not understood! They’re specialists. Inventors need specialists, as they train people to understand, and teach standardized language so people start talking about the same thing, even if the item is brand new invented. We’re thankful for scientists. Teachers. Always reading in the books of wisdom.
In Business though, if you got the perfect approach, everyone wants to find out about how you do it, all by themselves. At Dynamic Applications, we like to write for readers, not for science reports. That’s why. Another reason is that most scientists prefer to have a good life with lots of important, challenging experiments, on the back of other people being forced to pay taxes exactly for that. Not very idealistic. I’ve tried that before, quit when i found out about how project acquisition really works in a scientific institute. Well, you know. Long time ago. It doesn’t have to be true for every scientist, you know. Just a thought. Depends much on person and topic.
At Dynamic Applications, we’re not trying to develop theoretically brilliant things in the first place, here. We’re trying to develop useful things. We think it doesn’t harm though to have a well-funded concept. Our major source of inspiration was called Wikipedia, a first, fully automated, free 21st century university. Reading in thoughts of other people written down for exactly that purpose, as they thought these are important enough for encyclopedia. Not much harm.
An important part of underlining our expertise shall be provided in form of free software applications, so that everyone interested can check out the method and correctness of approach. A premium version with additional functionality for the professional user is planned, as our small family can not live from starvation. We think though that first of all, you should always think about what you’re going to do, then you should start building, and as soon as you’re really proud of everything, ask the customer for a modest contribution.
This project is about generating new values. Maybe also, in the long run, about providing settled, provide a few experienced values, paramteres and formula for the more conservative visitors. It’s gonna be a do-it-yourself thing, you know.
In fact, there are few people who’d buy newly invented things, anyways: They are unknown.
Our calculator in its interior may support things you won’t yet see in published examples. That’s how we do it. SD has to do with being able to do proper risk management. We like it to be a bit more powerful internally, than shown in the latest release. Check all Tooltips and the Desire language specification just in case you’re interested. We’re going to add hand-written Tooltips to every original reference simulation by Dynamic Applications.
It helps us to keep our deadlines. It helps you to get a mature product at a very good price. And we’re not talking about the 2,500 $ our competition is charging the scientists. We’re talking of 2.49 € here.
Why Startups and Small Business?
an easy question. Our Application started as a small piece. Let’s assume though in 5 years from now, we can all buy automated cars. The topic of PV System amortization, and e-mobility options, are complex questions. Looking inside our product, people would soon start shaking their heads if there are too many rough edges in our application, even if it could precisely predict the sustainability of a Tesla Model III. We thought it doesn’t make sense to go for the big companies from beginning.
To calculate a startup’s single product is a well-known scenario to everyone, so we use it for introduction of the approach. We need a good e-learning approach for the latter, first. However – whatever we do, we’re focused on user value, not profit in the first place.
From what we know, Albert Einstein would’ve gone this way, so it’s probably the best possible. Any inventor would choose this way, i’d say, as that’s how we are. It’s natural, as it’ll provide the best possible results over time. A sustainability approach.
So in the same way Google Analytics and all those BigData folks are looking backwards, we prefer to keep just look forward.
Know your competition. Learn from them. We’ve reversed their approach, in a way. With PD, all you need to know is a few facts from present. Then, think about what’s possible. It’s simpler. cheaper. much easier. and can give comparable results, at least.
We’re a Strategy advisory. BigData is tactics.
It’s like concentrating on memorizing a book of well-known chess openings. Data from past is useful for tactics. Think long about the very next move, your memory is all stuffed with knowledge. A defender’s approach. Defenders prefer to do small steps, they gotta be careful. Defenders try to avoid the final step forward, the risk. Defenders keep looking down the hill, afraid to stumble and fall. I’m not saying they’re top of the mountain. I said they’re top of the hill.
We couldn’t say the strategist always wins the game. It’s a thinker’s decision, a way to go. We simply prefer to be smart here over being super-wise’n wealthy. Being exhausted. Avoiding rough edges. Exhausted from targeting infinite money.
If you start using our software, say, once in a while, it’ll train you thinking in a special way, if ever so slowly. You may even not notice at first. Read here about our culture and principles of operation in case you’re interested. A few words about Google are included. BigData conpanies, you know.
In 21st century, never under-estimate a company’s culture. It’s what separates us from competition. It makes us stay together. As Culture decides how we’re going to proceed from any given situation.
Laptops we got all.
A brief introduction to System Dynamics.
A typical application of System Dynamics is to make use of the immediate results that any client will give you on whatever Input Parameters you feed it with. This is used in Scenario Variations, the developing of possible ways to go. While the Future is always manifold in its possible ways, we separate well-thought, different, but possible scenarios from each other. Then, we select our option of desire.
Since System Dynamics allows us not only to look at a Balanced Scorecard, but also to quantify it (put numbers in), we can calculate predictions and give a measure to results of a scenario.
We do this by separating Input Values (outgoing connections) from Target Value Formula (incoming, i.e. influencing, or through-passing connections).
Now the user may choose any number of Input Parameters, and predict their development – this should be fairly easy for the single parameter if you’re good at what you’re doing – production efficiency, cost developments, customer developments. The special thing about a System Dynamics Software is that it will calculate the combined outcome of all influences on the spot, using a heuristic, math-based method in very good approach.
So what is Dynamic Applications about, and what is System Dynamics in brief? – apart from having a well-known history including the Club of Rome story?
An example Scenario.
Let’s choose the acquisition of Photovoltaic Panels for your house.
There are various parameters influencing its outcome:
sunshine, shadowing trees, clouds, rain, snow, fog, day and night, effectiveness of panels, number of panels, years of operation, duration, electricity usage profile, net energy price (consumer), surplus energy profits (prosumer), battery option, and finally, net price developments to compare to the traditional, simple, dependent energy consumer.
Top of all, a Photovolatic System is most lucrative as long as not everyone uses it, because of the similarity of sunshine-driven production cycles in your neighbourhood. That occurs as soon as everyone produces surplus energy on a typical summer day. A problem of luxury that we’ll see arising in not so far future years, worldwide.
Sounds complicated? – yes.
But wouldn’t it be nice to understand the situation, get your own picture, calculate through it, and find out whether and how exactly the acquisition of a PV system will amortize itself over time? –
using System Dynamics, you can just do that. Take a look at the Balanced Scorecards describing the situation. Balanced Scorecards were designed to give an overview.
Solution of optimization problems is a Top-Down approach. The first approach is always a single sheet of Din A4 paper. That’s an overview, so we got it. System Dynamics is the step-by-step method of adding every detail to that picture that we need to consider.
Invented by Jay W. Forrester at MIT, early 1970s. Published in his first book, Industrial Dynamics. His publications on Urban Dynamics, World Dynamics, and the Club of Rome Story were yet to come at that time.
So what we’re planning to do is to provide a software – Predicted Desire – that allows you to get your own picture in a complex situation. We’re going to implement a proof-of-concept of the System Dynamics / Business Dynamics (SD for Business Applications) approach in Visual Studio 2015. This is January, 2016.
The Balanced Scorecards shown below a an easy-to-understand approach similar to a flow chart, will show you how the basic calcuation of the PV system. To show you how it’s working, and provide a good solution free of charge. We plan to have the simulation model working from summer.
Then, develop more interesting samples based on the same calculation approach.
Imagine to simulate your personal bank account’s proceedings, the acquisition of your next car, the amortization of Diesel, Gasoline, e-Mobility, and Hybrid, a business model simulating development of a free iPad App with in-App purchases, or how to build your own product, whatever it be.
For the latter, we think about giving you, the customer, the ability to change and extend any of our models by adding custom Input Values, Targets and Formula as simple as pressing a ‘+’ button. The system’s approach allows for that – please give us half a year for implementation.
Welcome to Dynamic Appliactions. Welcome to 21st century.
age of surplus information. We’ll help you to reduce it.
An introductory offering.
As a little reward for the patient reader, we offer free consultancy days at the moment, one day for each new customer.
- it can be done in one day.
- no cost for us as well.
- we’ll ask you to spend the train ticket.
Topics may be anything of your interest, proposedly connected to author’s blog, website, how-to do it yourself, optimization problems, and strategy advisory.
The bakery is baking bread. We need bread, you get an introduction in what we do. We’re convinced that you’ll come back to us, again. Others do marketing and sales – we start to work for you, on the spot. Free. After one day, you’ll get a clear picture. Should we find any open ends, you can take all the time it needs to decide:
- you’ll see your requirements more sharply,
- you’ll see whether you need any of the things we offer, at all.
- you can decide when you need them.
- no need to be sad if we can’t help. We see lots of requests coming up.
- for extra hours, we charge between 50 € and 75 € per hour, depending on a project’s nature: standard / specific.
For a standard enhancement, like a platform feature development from the @dynamic_qs list, we presume other people will benefit from it as well.
So we pay you back for driving us forward, and make it even cheaper. Of course, you can also wait for your feature to win the product competition. This way, it’s free.
Valid and available until further notice on this site.
Should there be any questions where we can help you, just drop us a note. Don’t be afraid – no problem is too small to be solved.
Innovation is everywhere.
Let’s start changing the world.